05/25/2022, 1:56 pm EDT

Solar/Wind Energy Event for ERCOT Report

Highlight: Enhanced Solar/Wind Combination ERCOT Sunday Fig. 1: GFS projection of solar potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022. Discussion: A relatively unique combination of exceptional solar power potential and wind power potential presents itself Sunday afternoon across Texas. The GFS potential downward short-wave radiation flux is in the 75-80% of capacity range across most of Texas mid-afternoon on Sunday (Fig. 1). Higher values are to the west into New Mexico. A gusty south to southwest wind is forecast for Sunday. Consequently, potential wind power generation is 90-95% of full potential (Fig. 2). The combination of high solar/wind power potential peaks on Sunday. Clouds increase on Monday. Fig. 2: GFS projection of wind power potential for mid-afternoon on Sunday May 29, 2022.
05/04/2022, 5:10 am EDT

Air Liquide 2022 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Presentation

02/07/2022, 11:28 am EST

Pacific Northwest HYDRO High Impact WX Charts

Highlight: Dry Northwest, high wind events Northwest Plains and ERCOT. Fig. 1: Warmest temperatures this week in western Washington/Oregon is Friday. Readings are well into the 70’s southwest Oregon. The Interior Northwest stays chilly and Montana turns cold again by late week. Fig. 2: The GFS ENS indicates the West is dry to very dry through the next 15 days. Fig. 3: The percent of normal precipitation for the New Water year which began October 1st is near or above normal for much of the Interior West to Washington State but below normal in Northern California and especially the Southern Continental Divide region.   Fig. 4: The percent of normal snow water equivalent is generally below to much below normal across much of the West except near to above normal Snake River basin to the Central Rockies and parts of Oregon and southeastern Nevada/northwestern Arizona. Fig. 5: High wind risk is evident across the Dakotas to Nebraska to western Minnesota tomorrow and again on Friday.   Fig. 6: A high wind event is possible in the 6-10-day period across central and western Texas.      
09/09/2021, 3:46 pm EDT

Energy Market Daily Report

Highlights: General guidance for traders/analysts on U.S. winter 2021-22 climate. Discussion: Winter forecasts for a suddenly “hot” natural gas market will be flooding email boxes/web sites/social media ahead and offering some general guidance on what to expect is in order. There are two “science-based” possibilities right now. The NOAA Outlook (Fig. 1) is the (most) simple view. Their forecast is based on the climatology of an expected La Nina and optimum climate normal (OCN) which is a 10-to-15-year climatology. La Nina typically brings cold and wet (snowy) weather to West Canada/Northwest U.S. while the South is dry and warm. Using OCN the winter outlook is adjusted warmer in the East. Option 2 is the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society forecast which is colder into the North-central and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). The IRI forecast develops the West Canada cold similar to NOAA but the clash of cold and warmth to the south creates an energetic snow producing climate and the cold shifts from its Canadian source region south across the snow cover from the Great Plains to the Northeast U.S. The preliminary Climate Impact Company (CIC) Outlook (issued in July and I’ll update this soon) indicates a warm Southwest U.S. winter season while New England is mild (Fig. 3). The cold pattern is there…into the North-central U.S. The CIC forecast maintains warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast which makes cold air reluctant to reach the East Coast from its Canadian source region. In summary, a good old-fashioned cold winter is hard to generate given the warm middle/northern latitude oceans. The key to cold is generating snow cover which is possible to do in a (warm) ocean climate. Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 2: IRI temperature probability forecast for upcoming winter. Fig. 3: CIC temperature anomaly forecast for upcoming winter based on a constructed analog.