05/30/2023, 7:10 pm EDT

Northwest Hydro Summer 2023 Outlook

Highlights: Northwest U.S. and Western Canada dryness to accelerate this summer season while wet conditions in California to the Great Basin Executive summary: The Climate Impact Company HYDRO forecast for Western Canada, the Northwest U.S., and California to Great Basin region is largely drier and hotter than normal. Low stream flows in the Northwest U.S. are likely to worsen while moderately high stream flows in California to the Rocky Mountains due to heavy winter snowfall are gradually expected to ease back. Western Canada drought worsens through the summer months. The forecast is based mostly on the presence of marine heatwave NEP22A approaching and reaching the West Coast of North America from near San Francisco Bay northward. Climate discussion: Currently, river gauge observations are split between dry 50-60% of normal stream flows across the Northwest to wet 150-200% of normal stream flows across the Sierra Nevada, parts of the Great Basin, and Colorado Rockies (Fig. 1). The U.S. Drought Monitor identifies borderline drought to strong drought soil moisture conditions affecting 48% of the West which has lowered slightly the past couple weeks and is much less dry than recent years (Fig. 2). The NOAA/CPC daily soil moisture analysis reveals the problem area for bad drought is across the Canadian Prairies and throughout the central/southern Canadian Rockies (Fig. 3). Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a titanic 15+ inches across the Cascades implying drought conditions in Eastern Washington are stronger than implied by other analysis (Fig. 4). Forecast summary: The forecast is based on developing El Nino during the summer months while the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (NEP22A) is likely to stay off the West Coast of North America (Fig. 5-6). The forecast of Northwest/West U.S. and West Canada temperature and precipitation is taken from a previously issued U.S. month 1-3 ahead outlook issued last week. In June, anomalous warmth extending south from the prevailing West Canada ridge pattern continues (Fig. 7). Washington is dry and drought accelerates while the Great Basin to Southern Idaho observes strong thunderstorms (Fig. 8). During mid-summer, anomalous heat dominates particularly the Northwest U.S. and Canada (Fig. 9) while a showery pattern lingers across the East Great Basin although drier elsewhere (Fig. 10). In August, the anomalous heat eases off slightly while dryness expands (Fig. 11-12). Forecast confidence on the drier/hotter regime for the Northwest U.S. hinges on the coastal approach of NEP22A. If close to the coast, or reaching the coast, the drier/hotter forecast is more confidently predicted. The summer 2023 fire risk outlook is focused on Canada and extends to the Interior Northwest, Upper Midwest, and touches the Interior Northeast (Fig. 13). Fig. 1: Streamflow analysis for various river gauges across the Northwest/West U.S. valid May 29, 2023. Fig. 2: U.S. Drought Monitor and attendant soil moisture conditions for the West U.S. as of May 23, 2023. Fig. 3: North America daily soil moisture anomalies according to NOAA/CPC. Fig. 4: Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Fig. 5-6: Northeast Pacific daily SSTA analysis and 14-day change identifies the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave edging toward the North America West Coast. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company June 2023 temperature and precipitation outlook. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company July 2023 temperature and precipitation outlook. Fig. 11-12: The Climate Impact Company August 2023 temperature and precipitation outlook. Fig. 13: Climate Impact Company summer 2023 southern extent into U.S. of Canadian fire risk.    
05/09/2023, 9:20 am EDT

Air Liquide Hurricanes 2023 Outlook

12/09/2022, 7:46 am EST

U.S. Energy Daily Report: U.S. Summer 2022 Review

U.S. Summer 2022 Climate Review Discussion: The U.S. meteorological summer 2022 season ranked 3rd hottest in the 128-year historical record. During summer, 25 of the 48 contiguous states recorded all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons on record (Fig. 1). Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Texas experienced their 2nd hottest summer on record followed by California and New Jersey where the 3rd hottest summer was observed. All states except for Wisconsin were warmer than normal. Meteorological summer ranked 44th driest on record although that ranking was created by a wide mix of wet and dry zones. Arizona, New Mexico, Mississippi, and West Virginia were each much wetter than normal during the summer season (Fig. 2). The Southwest U.S. observed a strong summertime wet monsoon in 2022. A very dry climate for summer 2022 was observed in Nebraska and the coastal Northeast Corridor. A major drought evolved and centered on Nebraska during the summer season. June 2022 was the 15th hottest on record. Five Southern U.S. States observed all-time to-10 hottest early summer climate (Fig. 3). Although Washington/Oregon and Arizona/New Mexico were very wet in June, the majority of the U.S. was very dry especially in Nebraska and the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 4). The national rank for June was 12th driest on record. The dry national climate to start the warm season inevitably leads to a scorching hot mid-summer regime. July 2022 ranked 3rd hottest on record. Texas observed their hottest July on record (Fig. 5). A total of 21 states in the lower 48 contiguous U.S. observed all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons. July was notable for severe squalls in northwest flow aloft bringing historic rains to Kentucky and West Virginia (Fig. 6). The 4th wettest July on record was observed in Kentucky. Conversely, historical dryness occurred during July in Texas and New Jersey to Rhode Island. August 2022 brought more hot weather (ranking 8th hottest nationally) including record heat for 8 states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire (Fig. 7). August 2022 was somewhat wetter than normal, ranking 19th wettest all-time. Mississippi received their wettest late summer on record while Nevada and Louisiana were each 3rd wettest on record (Fig. 8). Hot weather continued during the first month of meteorological autumn. September 2022 ranked 5th hottest on record nationally and included record heat for Nevada and Utah (Fig. 9). The U.S. ranked 10th driest on record for September due to a large swath of very dry weather stretched across the Central U.S. Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature for June 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for June 2022. Fig: 5: NOAA state rankings for temperature during July 2022. Fig: 6: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for July 2022. Fig: 7: NOAA state rankings for temperature for August 2022. Fig: 8: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for August 2022. Fig: 9: NOAA state rankings for temperature for September 2022. Fig: 10: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for September 2022.      
09/30/2022, 9:46 am EDT

Air Liquide PPTX Presentation: Hurricane Ian