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10/17/2023, 8:40 am EDT
Highlight: Windy in the Northwest U.S. during November while the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic receive below normal wind speeds. Executive Summary: The latest Climate Impact Company month ahead zonal/meridional wind speed forecast valid for November 2023 indicates below normal conditions for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. while the Northwest States are the “windy” zone for late meteorological autumn. Marginally stronger than normal wind speeds are forecast for Texas. September 2023 verification: Wind speeds were generally below normal during the first month of meteorological autumn. Notable were below normal zonal wind speeds across most of the Northern U.S. (Fig. 1). Additionally, the Northeast U.S. observed below normal meridional wind speeds (Fig. 2). Meridional wind was slightly above normal in the Mid-south U.S. during September. Fig. 1-2: The observed September 2023 zonal and meridional wind anomaly verification. Remainder of October 2023 forecast: Short-term significant wind events are unlikely although 35-40% of wind power generation potential is possible in Western Texas and South Dakota/Nebraska (Fig. 3). In the 6-10-day period, a major wind event (southwesterlies ahead of a cold front) is forecast for Oct. 24-25 leading to up to 75-80% of wind power potential for Texas to Kansas (Fig. 4). In the 11-15-day period to close October, wind generation potential is reduced (Fig. 5). Fig. 3-5: The GFS ENS 15-day wind power potential forecast for the Central/East-central U.S. November 2023 forecast: The late autumn wind speed forecast is based on a constructed analog. The forecast reveals below normal zonal wind speeds from the Midwest U.S. to Northeast Corridor (Fig. 6). Conversely, stronger than normal meridional wind speeds are forecast for all the Northern U.S. except the Northeast (Fig. 7). The Northwest U.S. is the “windy” region for November 2023. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. are least windy (compared to normal) for late meteorological autumn. Texas wind speeds are above normal mostly due to meridional wind direction. Fig. 6-7: The CIC-CA zonal and meridional wind speed anomaly forecast for November 2023. November 2022 verification: The late autumn wind speed verification for last year reveals a lack of significant wind. In fact, zonal wind anomalies are below normal across much of the western and southern Great Plains into Texas and through the Mid-south U.S. to the Southeast States (Fig. 8). Above normal zonal wind is forecast for the northern Great Plains to Iowa. However, there is a significant lack of anomalous meridional wind speeds for most of the U.S. in November (Fig. 9). Fig. 8-9: The zonal and meridional wind speed anomaly verification for November 2022.
12/09/2022, 7:46 am EST
U.S. Summer 2022 Climate Review Discussion: The U.S. meteorological summer 2022 season ranked 3rd hottest in the 128-year historical record. During summer, 25 of the 48 contiguous states recorded all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons on record (Fig. 1). Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Texas experienced their 2nd hottest summer on record followed by California and New Jersey where the 3rd hottest summer was observed. All states except for Wisconsin were warmer than normal. Meteorological summer ranked 44th driest on record although that ranking was created by a wide mix of wet and dry zones. Arizona, New Mexico, Mississippi, and West Virginia were each much wetter than normal during the summer season (Fig. 2). The Southwest U.S. observed a strong summertime wet monsoon in 2022. A very dry climate for summer 2022 was observed in Nebraska and the coastal Northeast Corridor. A major drought evolved and centered on Nebraska during the summer season. June 2022 was the 15th hottest on record. Five Southern U.S. States observed all-time to-10 hottest early summer climate (Fig. 3). Although Washington/Oregon and Arizona/New Mexico were very wet in June, the majority of the U.S. was very dry especially in Nebraska and the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 4). The national rank for June was 12th driest on record. The dry national climate to start the warm season inevitably leads to a scorching hot mid-summer regime. July 2022 ranked 3rd hottest on record. Texas observed their hottest July on record (Fig. 5). A total of 21 states in the lower 48 contiguous U.S. observed all-time top-10 hottest summer seasons. July was notable for severe squalls in northwest flow aloft bringing historic rains to Kentucky and West Virginia (Fig. 6). The 4th wettest July on record was observed in Kentucky. Conversely, historical dryness occurred during July in Texas and New Jersey to Rhode Island. August 2022 brought more hot weather (ranking 8th hottest nationally) including record heat for 8 states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire (Fig. 7). August 2022 was somewhat wetter than normal, ranking 19th wettest all-time. Mississippi received their wettest late summer on record while Nevada and Louisiana were each 3rd wettest on record (Fig. 8). Hot weather continued during the first month of meteorological autumn. September 2022 ranked 5th hottest on record nationally and included record heat for Nevada and Utah (Fig. 9). The U.S. ranked 10th driest on record for September due to a large swath of very dry weather stretched across the Central U.S. Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for meteorological summer 2022. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature for June 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for June 2022. Fig: 5: NOAA state rankings for temperature during July 2022. Fig: 6: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for July 2022. Fig: 7: NOAA state rankings for temperature for August 2022. Fig: 8: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for August 2022. Fig: 9: NOAA state rankings for temperature for September 2022. Fig: 10: NOAA state rankings for precipitation for September 2022.