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11/29/2022, 7:48 pm EST

U.S. Season 1-4 Outlook: La Nina ending increases wet weather risk to Texas and vicinity.

Highlight: La Nina ending increases wet weather risk to Texas and vicinity. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-4 outlook for the U.S. is updated. The forecast is based entirely on a prevailing La Nina climate for meteorological winter, transition into neutral ENSO next spring and evolution of a weak El Nino for mid-to-late 2023. The ENSO-based analog forecast indicates a traditional dry Northwest and Southeast winter with a cold bias across the North and warmer than normal in the South. During spring 2023, the transition into neutral ENSO produces a wet and cool pattern across Texas and the southern Great Plains. Summer 2023 is cool-biased across the Northwest and Southeast U.S. with anomalous hot weather risk highest across the North-central States. The autumn 2023 outlook is exceptionally cool and wet across the South U.S. Methodology: The outlook is based on a simple ENSO-based analog. The analog is produced by both Nino34 SSTA and southern oscillation index (SOI) which are each agreeable on the demise of La Nina early next year and slow evolution of El Nino for later next year. Climate: A 3rd peak intensity of La Nina 2020-22 may have occurred in October. Transient Madden Julian oscillation weakened La Nina slightly during the past several weeks. La Nina may regather some strength over the next few weeks followed by two more MJO events, each stronger than previous, likely to occur around January 1st and again by mid-February. After the second MJO episode, ENSO should be approaching (or entering) neutral phase (Fig. 1-2). Neutral ENSO remains in-place through Q2 of 2023. Both the Nino34 and SOI analogs indicate evolution of weak El Nino during Q3 of 2023 possibly gaining strength later next year. Fig. 1: Using Nino34 SSTA an analog featuring past lengthy La Nina events and typical following ENSO phase is indicated. Fig. 2: Using southern oscillation index an analog featuring past lengthy La Nina events and typical following ENSO phase is indicated. DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23: The ENSO-based analog indicates a classic La Nina winter season ahead for the U.S. The northern states are snow-covered and stay cold. Occasionally, some of the northern cold migrates southward. However, in-between any cold outbreaks, the La Nina climate is quite mild. The La Nina climate pattern also features well below normal precipitation in the Northwest and Southeast U.S. while marginal stormy weather is indicated in the Mid-south States and across the Tennessee Valley. Mixed results on water levels for the Mississippi River are indicated. The amount of precipitation required to ease this issue is not indicated. As always during winter, snow cover is the key to cold weather and south of snow cove the pattern can be quite warm. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company upper air/temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23. MAR/APR/MAY 2023: During spring 2023, La Nina ends and neutral ENSO takes over. During neutral ENSO, frequency of MJO events increase. MJO events bring above normal precipitation to the southern states and due to increased cloud cover and precipitation, a cooler than normal climate. Anomalous warmth has a tendency to bias northward extending from the Ohio Valley eastward and also the Northern Continental Divide. Dryness is evident from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast States. Wet weather is indicated for spring for areas mostly west of the Mississippi River. The winter drought across the Southeast U.S. eases. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company upper air/temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for MAR/APR/MAY 2023. JUN/JUL/AUG 2023: El Nino is emerging by Q3 of 2023 based on the analog. The attendant climate pattern features a cool bias in the Southeast and Northwest U.S. while anomalous hot weather risk is strongest across the western and northern Great Plains. The Central States are quite dry during summer 2023. Early season tropical cyclone risk into the northwest Gulf States is favored. The Mid-Atlantic States stay on the dry side. Dryness in the Central U.S. follows a wet spring. The only sneaky drought risk area is the Upper Midwest and also the coastal Northeast Corridor. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company upper air/temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023. SEP/OCT/NOV 2023: Autumn 2023 maintains a cool bias across the South and spreads throughout much of the East. Wet weather enhances the cool weather risk centered on Texas and the Mid-south States. The Northwest observes a mostly warmer and drier than normal autumn season. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company upper air/temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2023.
10/06/2022, 12:28 pm EDT

Europe/Western Russia Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlook: Cold risk for Europe during winter is increasing.

Cold weather risk in Western Russia is apparent during winter and with easterly flow, some of that chill could easily push into Europe.