05/26/2023, 6:56 am EDT

U.S. Month 1-3 Outlook: Northwest heat and dryness continues, Northeast Corridor heat appears in JUL/AUG, and Great Plains drought easing late summer.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast is updated. The forecast indicates minor but important changes. In June, the dryness in the Midwest shifts farther north to Minnesota. The Great Basin to western Great Plains is wetter and the southwest quadrant of the U.S. is not as hot. The East is temperate during June while Texas is marginally hot. In July, the Northeast and much of Texas is hot as previously indicated while the Great Plains are temperate and trend wetter across the southern Plains. July stays hot and mostly dry in the Northwest. The August outlook maintains a cool pattern in the Great Plains with increased wet weather risk helping to ease drought concerns. The Southeast and central Gulf States stay wet in August in anticipation of tropical cyclone activity. The far Northern U.S. and Southern Canada finish the summer season warmer and drier than normal. High impact climate discussion energy: A hotter than normal summer remains in the forecast. However, the ability to produce a stagnant hot upper ridge over the U.S. appears difficult this summer season. Therefore, long-lasting important anomalous heat present in recent summer seasons is not expected. The two exceptions are the Northwest and possibly for a 6-week period in the coastal Northeast Corridor. Therefore, national CDD forecasts are lower this summer compared to the last 3 (summer) seasons. ERCOT and PJM-East remains hot for JUL/AUG. High impact climate discussion agriculture: The central Great Plains drought does not observe a dry summer and consequently drought is not likely to worsen and more likely to ease. Drought expanding northeastward to Iowa, western Illinois, and northern Missouri is a greater concern. The drought expansion extends to July followed by wet risk suppressing drought risk. The southwest Great Plains is trending wetter. June 2023 outlook: No major changes BUT many adjustments to the first month of meteorological summer climate forecast. The dry concern in the Midwest States shifts slightly northward from Iowa to Minnesota. The Canadian Prairies are mostly dry but not as dry as the previous forecast. Western Canadian warmth extends to the northwest quadrant of the U.S. slightly more forcefully. However, California to Texas is not as hot as previously indicated. The wet anomaly in the central Rockies indicated in the previous forecast extends farther westward. Finally, a wet bias remains indicated in the Southeast States although less aggressively than previous. The East is temperate while New England is dry and could be warmer than indicated. The climate drivers are a possible onset of El Nino, lack of Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) presence, weakening cool Pacific decadal oscillation, and a vigorously warm North Atlantic. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company June 2023 temperature and precipitation outlook.  July 2023 outlook: The expected SSTA trend is warming of the western North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific supporting stronger high pressure aloft leading to anomalous heat risk on each coast. Anomalous heat is also likely across the southwestern Texas drought area and extending to 4-Corners. However, just to the north, wet weather prevails from Utah to the southwest Great Plains. The core of the Great Plains drought, located in Kansas as summer starts, continues to shift east and northeast toward Iowa. The East remains wet during mid-summer as a weak upper low entrains buoyant low atmospheric moisture across the warm SSTA pattern in the western North Atlantic. Nevertheless, periods of hot and humid weather remain in the Northeast Corridor forecast. The Northwest stays hot and mostly dry. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company July 2023 temperature and precipitation outlook.  August 2023 outlook: The late summer forecast maintains a hot risk in the Northeast, southwest Texas, and the Northwest U.S. However, in stark contrast, an upper trough rests over the Great Plains bringing a cooler than normal end to meteorological summer as previously indicated. The one change in the forecast is wetter, due to the trough, in the central Great Plains. Wet weather also extends northward from the Gulf States possibly related to tropical cyclone influence. The late summer rainfall forecast favors central Great Plains to Midwest U.S. drought concerns beginning to ease possibly significantly. Southern Canada and the far Northern U.S. are drier and warmer than normal in August promoting a dangerous fire risk to some of that stretch. The Southwest U.S. is drier and hotter than normal due to a weak wet monsoon. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company August 2023 temperature and precipitation outlook.     
05/03/2023, 8:39 am EDT

Europe Month 1-4 Ahead/Summer 2023 Outlook: Regenerating important heat/dryness is likely (again) during summer of 2023.

Executive Summary: The Europe/Western Russia month 1-4 ahead outlook valid through September 2023 indicates more heat and dryness for Europe ahead. The meteorological summer 2023 forecast indicates widespread anomalous warmth for Europe, the Black Sea region, and across the Caspian Sea. Despite wet soils to start the warm season across Central/East Europe, a drier than normal summer climate is ahead. Dryness is also likely across the eastern Black Sea/Caspian Sea region. Evolution of a marine heat wave off Northwest Africa could enhance the very warm/dry climate forecast if this feature persists. The evolving drought that follows this hot/dry forecast is not as severe as last year except for South-central/Southwest and Northern Europe. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies for Europe/Western Russia for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023. Climate: The Europe/Russia season 1-3 ahead climate forecast is based on development of positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD), evolving El Nino, and optimum climate normal (OCN) featuring the 10-year climatology. During the 2023 warm season, +IOD develops according to Australia Bureau of Meteorology. When +IOD is in-place, the warm SSTA pattern in the western tropical Indian Ocean fuels thunderstorm activity. Latent heat release from that convection released poleward and on average leads to an enhanced subtropical high-pressure system just east of the Black Sea which causes increased anomalous hot and dry climate risk. To compensate for the ridge, an intense trough forms to the north across Northern Russia during summertime. The +IOD analog years are 1997, 2006, 2012, and 2015. This pattern weighs heavily on the warm season outlook for Europe and Western Russia. The +IOD pattern considered for autumn weakens by late year and is not part of the winter 2022-23 outlook. El Nino arrives during the next 1-2 months. The intensity level is uncertain. There is about equal risk of a weak or strong El Nino developing during the middle third of 2023. Later this year a stronger El Nino is likely. To cover an organized El Nino climate risk for Europe/Western Russia, added are analog years 1997 and 2015. The influence on Europe climate by an oncoming El Nino is a wet bias for far southern areas and drier/warmer than normal with latitude. Finally, the persistence and influence on climate to the northern hemisphere by the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) and North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) beginning in 2014, an optimum climate normal (for 2014-22) are considered for the forecast. On average, the OCN climate influence on Europe during the warm season is drier/warmer than normal for Central Europe to Ukraine. In addition, MHW activity is evolving off the northwestern coast of Africa and southwest of Europe. The attendant high-pressure ridge is causing early season heat and promoting drought in Northwest Africa/Southwest Europe. If this feature continues to evolve adjustments to the forecast may be necessary biased toward more dryness and heat for Southwest Europe extending northward with time. June 2023: The early meteorological summer outlook indicates developing anomalous heat centered on the Caspian Sea region. Anomalous heat also evolves across South-central Europe and expands northward during the month. The MHW off the Northwest Coast of Africa could bias this anomalous heat and dryness farther west. The precipitation forecast is confident with wet weather centered on Western Turkey but could be drier in France due to the Northwest Africa MHW and attendant upper ridge pattern. Central and Northern Europe are drier than normal. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for June 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. July 2023: Upper ridge pattern brings a hot and dry mid-summer to much of Europe. Downstream the upper ridge location, an equally impressive upper trough cools Northwest Russia. The upper trough may produce mid-summer thunderstorm activity affecting parts of Western Russia and the Black Sea region. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for July 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. August 2023: Late meteorological summer emphasizes a high latitude upper ridge pattern leaving the northern 2/3 of Europe drier and hotter than normal. The dryness and anomalous heat spreads into Southwest Russia and the Black Sea region. Southern Europe is also warmer than normal although wet weather threats are possible for Southeast Europe. The NAWH upper trough budges eastward to bring late summer rains to U.K. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for August 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. September 2023: The upper ridge shifts southward causing the dry climate to shift while all of Europe and into Western Russia is likely to remain warmer than normal. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for September 2023 across Europe/Western Russia.