News
03/27/2024, 9:40 am EDT

AG Market Global Weather/Climate PPTX Presentation

03/26/2024, 2:54 pm EDT

South America Week 2-5 Outlook: Support for wet weather in Brazil gone after 10 days. Brazil super drought continues.

Week-2 Valid March 31-April 6, 2024: Northeast and Southeast Brazil rains.   Discussion: ECM projects broad upper ridging across Brazil. Wet weather is indicated in Southeast and Northeast Brazil mostly early in the week and motivated by a transient MJO across the tropical Atlantic. A drier scenario is likely by late week. Week-3 Valid April 7-13, 2024: Upper air pattern supports less rain in Brazil. Discussion: ECM indicates marginally wetter than normal weather across much of Brazil. The forecast is likely too wet and not sufficiently warm. Week-4 Valid April 14-20, 2024: Drier/hotter than indicated by ECM. Discussion: A widening dry period is likely for just-after mid-April. Anomalous warmth is likely stronger than indicated. Week-5 Valid April 21-27, 2024: Mostly dry and warm. Discussion: Support is for widespread dryness with anomalous warmth into late April.  
03/26/2024, 2:18 pm EDT

Australia Week 2-5 Outlook: Wet weather shifts into the Southeast next week; drier conditions to follow.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 31-April 6, 2024: Trend is cooler; Wet Southeast. Discussion: Upper trough shifts to southeast continent next week. A trailing cooler air mass hovers across much of Australia. The forecast by ECM may be too cool. The upper trough brings showery weather to New South Wales and Victoria. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid April 7-13, 2024: A drier forecast. Discussion: Upper trough moves offshore leaving most of Australia dry. ECM is too cool across northern continent. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 14-20, 2024: ECM forecast is too cool. Discussion: Upper ridge is along the West Coast while an upper trough migrates eastward to near New Zealand. Much of the continent is drier than normal absent any late season tropical activity. The ECM forecast is too cool and Western Australia is likely warmer than indicated. Week-5 Ahead Forecast valid April 21-27, 2024: Low confidence forecast. Discussion: The late April forecast is marginally warmer than normal with wet risk on the East Coast. Forecast confidence is low.
03/26/2024, 8:21 am EDT

U.S. Week 2-5 Outlook: Southwest and Northeast U.S. are cool corners into early April.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 31-April 6, 2024: Cooler upper trough into the Northeast. Discussion: -NAO pattern drops an upper trough to the east of New England causing cooler changes for the Northeast U.S., possibly cooler than indicated especially near the coast. The Southwest U.S. trough is maintained keeping the Southwest U.S. chilly. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid April 7-13, 2024: Severe weather emerges in the Southeast. Discussion: The upper trough lingers over the Southwest U.S. In the Southeast, conditions favor severe thunderstorms. Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 14-20, 2024: Rainy Gulf Coast. Discussion: Upper ridge pattern warms Canada including the Northern U.S. Wet weather expands along the Gulf Coast. Week-5 Ahead Forecast valid April 21-27, 2024: Warmer trend.     Discussion: ECM indicates signs of a weak high-pressure ridge over the northwest Great Plains by late April.