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09/27/2018, 9:10 am EDT

Week 2-4 Outlook Western Russia

Highlight: Steady return of the warmer pattern. Last Week: Still very warm. Discussion: Widespread anomalous warmth persisted last week across Western Russia although some beneficial rainfall affected Southern District to southern Volga region. Week 2 Ahead: September 30-October 6, 2018 Comment: A cool and showery trough affects northwestern portions of Russia early-to-middle period. The cool weather extends to Southeast Europe early next week. By mid-to-late next week anomalous warmth spreads west and north to the Black Sea region and across south-to-central Russia. Week 3 Ahead: October 7-13, 2018 Comment: Ensembles are trending warmer and drier across the Black Sea region into south/southwest Russia. The showery regime shifts farther to the north. Week 4 Ahead: October 14-20, 2018 Comment: The warm pattern returns to Eastern Europe/Western Russia with mostly dry conditions. Wet weather emerges in Central Russia.  
09/21/2018, 1:11 pm EDT

Russia Week 2-4 Outlook

Occasional rains, no signs of important early cold. Days 6-10 (Sep. 26-30): Cold front brings showers early period to the Black Sea region followed by cooler weather. The cooler air mass lifts northeast quickly late period followed by another warm-up. Late in the period a cold front approaches but weakens before arriving therefore staying dry. Western Russia is mild early followed by a showery regime then cooler temperatures mid-to-late period. Days 11-15 (Oct. 1-5): Trending milder for Western Russia while Black Sea region stays warmer than normal. A lot of cloudiness with showery periods possible. More substantial rain moves into Western Russia late period. Days 16-20 (Oct. 6-10): Forecast confidence is low. There is risk of substantial rain early in the period. Briefly cooler air mass follows with moderation and dryness likely late in the period. OCT/NOV/DEC: The outlook is contingent on a stronger than normal jet stream flow off the North Atlantic and across Europe. This pattern brings above normal precipitation to Western and Southern Europe but downstream the climate should be milder and drier than normal across Western Russia. Black Sea region is susceptible to rainfall events.