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06/26/2019, 12:30 pm EDT

Russia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: Cool Central/Warm West Russia for Summer Season Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Russia is valid for the months of July and August plus SEP/OCT/NOV 2019 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20. The forecast is generated by a SSTA-based analog. The selected SSTA forecast is the NCEP CFS V2. The outlooks are biased cool in Central Russia due to a persistent upper trough. Farther upstream an upper ridge is dominant biasing Western Russia very warm. Dryness is an issue for West/Southwest Russia during summer. The Black Sea region may trend wetter in August. The autumn season turns wetter than normal and winter looks cold for southern Russia. Climate discussion: The outlook is based on global SSTA forecasts for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 through NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 (Fig. 1-2) by the NCEP CFS V2 model chosen due to best initialization compared to the NMME and GFDL model. The JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 outlook indicates positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) and El Nino Modoki. The +IOD pattern generates anomalous convection in the west and central tropical Indian ocean. The anomalous warm ocean causes persistent widespread convection which releases heat northeastward into the middle latitudes in this case causing an amplified upper ridge across Eastern Asia. Upstream from the ridge is a Central Russia cool and wet upper trough and farther upstream a persistent upper ridge over Eastern Europe for summertime. Fig. 1: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 and regional regimes affecting the European climate are indicated. Fig. 2: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 and regional regimes affecting the European climate are indicated. Outlooks: The outlooks are generated based on analogs which consider the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) regimes. The analog years extend to the beginning of the current climate cycle (initiated in the mid-to-late 1990’s). Forecasts for July and August are provided plus seasonal forecasts for meteorological autumn and winter ahead. July 2019: The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole renders anomalous convection in the west and central Indian Ocean tropics which releases latent heat pole ward causing a persistent upper warm ridge across East Asia. Following the upper ridge is a persistent upper trough in Central Russia. Surges of cool air into Central Russia with wet weather North-central Russia is expected during mid-summer. Farther to the west, an upper ridge pattern promises anomalous heat and dryness for Western Russia into the Black Sea region. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for July 2019. August 2019: The prevailing upper air pattern present in July and related to the +IOD regime is likely to continue into late summer influencing the Russia climate. Expect more periods of cool weather across Central Russia. Anomalous warmth continues across West Russia and emerges throughout Southwest Russia. However, the Black Sea region gains a showery pattern likely to affect Ukraine. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for August 2019. SEP/OCT/NOV 2019: In-between a persistent upper trough over Northwest Russia and lingering warmth caused by the subtropical ridge a wet zone is expected to evolve stretching from the Black Sea region across Southwest to North-central Russia. Temperatures trend cooler in West Russia although autumn stays warmer than normal across Southwest Russia. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for SEP/OCT/NOV 2019. DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20: A high latitude high pressure blocking pattern is forecast which implies middle latitude cold and snow. Southern Russia is forecast cold and snowy for next winter. The cold/snowy pattern will certainly affect the Black Sea region. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20.