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06/29/2018, 10:40 am EDT

Russia Season 1-3 Climate Outlook

An El Nino Modoki-based Climate Outlook through winter 2018-19 Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Russia is updated. Indicated is a return to a cooler regime in southwest to south Russia during JUL/AUG while meteorological autumn is very warm although showery for Western Russia. Widening arctic air and above normal snow cover brings a frigid winter. Climate discussion:  A somewhat recent discovery of an infrequent version of an El Nino episode known as El Nino Modoki is becoming a more likely scenario for the next 1-3 to as many as 9 months ahead according to the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Fig. 1) and various global SSTA forecast models governing the most likely climate patterns around the globe. Fig. 1: El Nino-Modoki Index forecast by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology indicates a weak Modoki ahead for 2018-19. To estimate a historical precedent of El Nino Modoki regimes on global climate analog years are chosen. El Nino Modoki occurred in 2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-10 (Fig. 2). There are other El Nino Modoki episodes prior to the 3 listed however they occurred when another important mode of climate variability, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) was in the cool phase (Fig. 3). Fig. 2: Analog years comparing cool Nino12 SSTA and warm Nino34 characteristic of El Nino Modoki and the last 3 months of 2018. Fig. 3: Analog years are chosen from the past 20 years when the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation has been in the warm phase. Outlooks: A simple El Nino Modoki analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies is indicated for JUL/AUG, SEP/OCT/NOV and DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19. The outlooks are a confident first estimate of what to expect in each sector of the globe as to general climate conditions inspired by this unique El Nino scenario. Regional influences such as soil moisture during the warm season and snow cover during the cold season plus regional SSTA regimes outside of the tropics can modify the El Nino Modoki climate. July/August 2018: The pattern is likely to revert back to the springtime regime of cooler than normal climate in Southwest Russia and northeastward to Central Russia while anomalous warmth dominates Ukraine and Western Russia. Dryness should persist across Southwest Russia with some spotty rainfall in the Black Sea region. Fig. 4-5: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Russia for JUL/AUG 2018. SEP/OCT/NOV 2018: Below average forecast confidence is evident for autumn 2018. The forecast indicates anomalous warmth is dominant strongest north of the Caspian Sea. In-between a cool trough across northern Europe and a mean ridge position in West-central Russia a showery regime is likely for Western Russia. Fig. 6-7: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Russia for SEP/OCT/NOV 2018. DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19: Forecast confidence is reasonable for a potentially bold cold winter across Russia with widespread long-lasting arctic air across above normal snow cover. The deep cold is not likely to penetrate into the Black Sea region. Fig. 8-9: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Russia for DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19.