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09/09/2022, 8:10 am EDT

Russia Month 1-3 Ahead Outlook: A warm Q4 of 2022. But! Arctic cold gathers in January.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast for Russia is updated. The month of January (month-4) is added. The forecast is based on the influence of North Atlantic and Indian Ocean SSTA on the Asia climate pattern. Included in that projection is the optimum climate normal (OCN) associated with the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) plus influence of the negative phase Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD). Additionally, influence of open water north of Russia to the south of a constricted polar ice cap plays a role in the forecast. Highlights include a warm Q4 of 2022 with generally wet climate (eventually snow) across northern sections with dryness dominating farther south. Pooling arctic air in Central Asia is likely during mid-winter. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for OCT/NOV/DEC 2022 across Russia. October 2022: Mid-autumn brings a warm pattern to Western Russia with dryness spreading into the Black Sea region. An early season chill aligns over Russia’s Southern District and eastward especially east of the Caspian Sea. Wet weather is dominant over Northern Europe to Poland mostly staying west of Russia. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for October 2022 across Russia. November 2022: Late autumn is boldly warmer than normal mainly due to the warm marine influence of open water north and northwest of Russia. Above normal precipitation is likely across northern areas but not yet snow cover due to the mild temperatures. The Black Sea region is dry and the October chill across far Southern Russia abates and is replaced by a milder regime. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for November 2022 across Russia. December 2022: During early winter, the mild regime continues. Possible is a colder reversal by late month. The cold pool returns near and east of Caspian Sea. The Black Sea region stays dry and Southern Russia is (also) generally drier than normal. Northern Russia snow cover should improve steadily especially mid-to-late month. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for December 2022 across Russia. January 2023: The mid-winter forecast finds pooling arctic air in Central Russia to east of Caspian Sea. This air mass requires close monitoring for any potential migration westward toward Europe. Southwest Russia stays warm while to the east, the deep cold organizes and remains stubborn through mid-winter. Westward expanding snow cover occurs in January and could serve as a guide for expansion of the Central Asia cold. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for January 2023 across Russia.