03/20/2023, 5:23 am EDT

U.S. Month 1-3 Outlook: Wet spring Midwest; Very warm Texas to Mid-Atlantic.

Executive Summary: The latest Climate Impact Company month 1-3 outlook valid for Q2/2023 is updated. High impact climate during the next 3 months include a wet spring across the Midwest and likely erosion of the north and east portion of the current Great Plains drought zone. Except for May, the West gradually reverses back into a warmer/drier than normal climate. A warm-to-hot Q2/2023 is likely across the Gulf States and the East U.S. El Nino is on the way. However, the springtime prediction barrier holds back the ENSO outlook forecast confidence for another month or two before certainty on how strong the 2023 El Nino will become is better understood. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company APR/MAY/JUN 2023 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook. Climate: La Nina ended during early March. The East Pacific SSTA pattern is warming fast. Dynamic ENSO phase forecast models project El Nino by June. Based on current trends there is no disagreement with that forecast and an El Nino bias for mid-to-late spring is added to the forecast. Also important is the mid-latitude warm SSTA regime in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The marine heat have northeast of Hawaii is forecast to budge toward the U.S. West Coast supporting a choppy trend toward dry/warm high-pressure ridging while the warm SSTA across the western North Atlantic supports a warm Q2 of 2023 for the South and East U.S. The warm western North Atlantic is well-correlated to the 10-year optimum climate normal (OCN) of a wet pattern in the Midwest/Northeast States. Soil moisture conditions become an influence on the climate forecast beginning in June. The east/north fringe of the current Great Plains drought is expected to erode. April 2023 outlook: During April, a polar vortex occupies the North Coast of Canada, an upper-level ridge amplifies into the Gulf of Alaska, and also off the Atlantic Seaboard. The sensible weather forecast yields periods of cool weather extending into the North-central U.S. from the home base source region across Western Canada. The upper trough supporting these cool outbreaks into the North-central States clash with the semi-permanent upper ridge extending westward from the central North Atlantic propelling a wet April across the Midwest States but also including the Southeast U.S. Severe weather events across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. is expected. The warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico enhances the wet weather risk described. Typical of warm western North Atlantic SSTA patterns, the East/Southeast U.S. is warmer than normal during mid-spring. The ridge pattern across the Northeast Pacific occasionally extends across the Southwest States causing a warmer and drier than normal mid-spring. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company April 2023 constructed analog temperature and precipitation outlook. May 2023 outlook: The polar vortex in Canada shifts to Hudson Bay. An upper ridge pattern remains across the Southeast States. The pesky winter 2022-23 upper trough over California is forecast to return during late meteorological spring. The sensible weather projects the cool/wet return in California. The California trough clash with the Southeast U.S. ridge edges the wet weather belt westward centered on the Missouri Valley. The Midwest remains wet. The wet pattern erodes the eastern portion of the current drought in the west/central Great Plains. Severe weather risk is above normal across East Texas to the Mid-south States while the immediate Gulf States are drier than normal. Warm weather continues across the South and East States. Cool air masses can strike the North-central U.S. with late season extreme chill possible. The coastal Northwest will continue drier and warmer than normal. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company May 2023 constructed analog temperature and precipitation outlook. June 2023 outlook: Meteorological summer 2023 begins with the presence of upper troughs over the North-central and Northeast U.S. Consequently, a wet early summer is expected in the Upper Midwest, Midwest, and Northeast States. A large subtropical ridge builds across the Gulf of Mexico causing a warm-to-hot start to summer for the southern half of the U.S. Rainfall is generally below normal for Texas and eastward across the Southeast States. The West us exposed to an upper ridge pattern off the Northwest U.S. Coast yielding a warm-to-hot and dry start to the summer season. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company June 2023 constructed analog temperature and precipitation outlook.