02/16/2023, 7:25 pm EST

Europe/Western Russia Seasonal 1-3 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: Forecast change, Europe is wet during summer and drought risk centers on Southwest Russia. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead climate forecast for Europe/Western Russia valid for meteorological spring, summer, and autumn is updated. Significant changes emerge in the outlook. The primary large change is a wetter forecast for Europe during summer which eases drought risk while torrid heat and dryness promise a drought centered on Southwest Russia. Dryness in Western Europe is evident during spring and may return by autumn. Climate: The Europe/Western Russia season 1-3 ahead climate outlook is based on a robust warm global SSTA forecast indicated by the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) which includes an evolving El Nino, very warm mid-latitude North Pacific and North Atlantic basins, another warm season with very warm SSTA surrounding Europe, and an evolving negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). The massive warm SSTA signature which includes both the tropics and mid-latitude oceans and influence on climate implies a record warm 2023 (globally). The warm SSTA surrounding Europe including the Mediterranean Sea assures above normal 500 MB heights across much of Europe into Western Russia which is associated with warmer than normal climate and frequently drier than normal precipitation regimes. The North Atlantic basin is boldly warmer than normal, likely causing the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMLO) to return to strong positive phase. The +AMO pattern tries to wipe-out the North Atlantic w3arm hole (NAWH) south-southeast of Greenland during the summer season. El Nino is expected by most dynamic models although analogs are less aggressive with that forecast. In the Indian Ocean, warm SSTA develop in the western tropical basin which enables anomalous convection, and the heat release poleward could amplify an upper ridge pattern during the summer season near and/or east of the Black Sea. Fig. 1: The International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) global SSTA forecast for July 2023 and relevant regions pertinent to the Europe/Western Russia climate forecast. MAR/APR/MAY 2023: The prevailing upper air pattern during spring 2023 features an upper trough across Northwest Eurasia while upper ridge positions are just-off Southwest Europe and across Central Asia. The spring outlook responds by producing on-and-off chilly temperatures in the Baltic Region with strong warm anomalies to the east across West-central Russia reaching Ukraine and the Black Sea region. Southwest Europe plus U.K. is also warmer than normal for upcoming spring. Dryness is dominant across France, Spain and Portugal where new drought reorganizes. Dryness is also dominant in the Black Sea region to Southwest Russia, ab area with mostly wet soils departing the winter season. Fig. 2-3: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for MAR/APR/MAY 2023 across Europe/Western Russia.  JUN/JUL/AUG 2023: An interesting forecast with a substantial change. Projections of a +IOD pattern supports anomalous convection in the West Indian Ocean tropics. North of the convection, an upper-level high-pressure ridge roasts The Black Sea/Caspian Sea region where drought could become harsh. The upper ridge is compensated for by a wet upper trough in Europe which prevents drought. Fig. 4-5: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. SEP/OCT/NOV 2023: Next autumn, the upper ridge returns to Europe causing a dry and warm pattern for the season. Well to the east, the ridge is compensated for by a cool trough east of the Caspian Sea. The Black Sea region is mostly drier than normal. Fig. 6-7: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2023 across Europe/Western Russia.