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07/29/2022, 4:46 am EDT

Europe Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlook: Slightly warmer than normal winter ahead.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Europe valid from autumn 2022 to spring 2023 is updated. The forecast is based mostly on presence of La Nina and most important, the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) SSTA pattern. The forecast reveals autumn is mostly warmer than normal, possibly more-so than indicated and maintains Southern Europe dry-to-drought conditions. The all-important winter season is forecast slightly milder-than-normal with the warm bias across Southeast Europe. The South/Southeast Europe drought fades. The Black Sea region/Southwest Russia is forecast more snowy than normal which opens the door for a potential colder solution in Europe especially mid-to-late winter. The spring 2023 forecast across Europe is mostly dry which raises concern about returning stronger drought during the 2023 warm season. Climate discussion: The forecast is based on a constructed analog focused on presence of the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) and La Nina as indicated by the NMME global SSTA forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23 (Fig. 1). Due to the persistence of the NAWH pattern since the winter of 2013-14 and the attendant dominant role on Europe winter climate (Fig. 2) and coupled with cold ENSO years a reliable optimum climate normal (OCN) is project climate expectations for the season 1-3 ahead climate across Europe. Fig. 1: The NMME global SSTA forecast valid for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23 which identifies presence of La Nina and the NAWH pattern. Fig. 2: The prevailing upper air pattern affecting Europe during winter since 2013-14 when the NAWH pattern became dominant. SEP/OCT/NOV 2022: The meteorological autumn 2022 climate forecast for Europe indicates warmer-than-normal conditions are likely across Central and North Europe into Northwest Russia. Southern Europe is forecast mostly near normal temperature. Forecast confidence is reasonable although Southern Europe could easily be warmer than forecast given the likely continuation of a drier-than-normal climate. Southern Europe drought is likely to continue strengthening especially across Southwest Europe. In Western Russia, a mostly warmer-than-normal autumn is expected and the near normal regime projected in the Black Sea region could easily be warmer given dryness continuing in that region. Note that the forecast is much drier across Southern Europe compared to the previous outlook. Fig. 3-4: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.  DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23: The meteorological winter 2022-23 forecast is less warm than the typical Europe winter of the past 9 years when the NAWH pattern developed. The lack of any El Nino involvement likely causes the slightly less warm result. The winter 2022-23 outlook indicates seasonal averages are mostly near normal with mild seasonal averages across Southeast Europe into the Black Sea region. There is no cold anomaly forecast, particularly in Western Russia which is typically the cold air source region for Europe. The precipitation outlook indicates the South/Southeast Europe drought eases (or ends) due to a strong storm track and above normal snowfall is likely in the Black Sea region. U.K. is wetter than normal. The month-to-month temperature variability is limited and favors anomalous warmth in Southeast Europe for each month. As winter approaches this part of the forecast becomes more detailed and confident. Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23. Fig. 7-9: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature forecast for each month of meteorological winter 2022-23. MAR/APR/MAY 2023: Next spring is cold in Western Russia likely related to lingering snow cover during early spring. The chill extends to Southeast Europe. Of interest is the widespread dryness across Europe. One exception is wet climate projected across Spain. Much of Europe could close 2022 in drought. By next spring, due to lack of springtime rains, significant drought in Europe for 2023 could emerge mainly focused on Western Europe. Fig. 10-11: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for MAR/APR/MAY 2023.