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06/29/2018, 10:26 am EDT

Europe Season 1-3 Climate Outlook

An El Nino Modoki-based Climate Outlook through winter 2018-19 Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Europe is adjusted for impacts on global climate by El Nino Modoki. During the next 2 months above normal rainfall is likely for west and south portions of Europe with steady warmth to the north. The autumn outlook is made with below average forecast confidence favoring anomalous warmth for southern Europe. The winter outlook is cold and snowy! Climate discussion:  A somewhat recent discovery of an infrequent version of an El Nino episode known as El Nino Modoki is becoming a more likely scenario for the next 1-3 to as many as 9 months ahead according to the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Fig. 1) and various global SSTA forecast models governing the most likely climate patterns around the globe. Fig. 1: El Nino-Modoki Index forecast by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology indicates a weak Modoki ahead for 2018-19. To estimate a historical precedent of El Nino Modoki regimes on global climate analog years are chosen. El Nino Modoki occurred in 2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-10 (Fig. 2). There are other El Nino Modoki episodes prior to the 3 listed however they occurred when another important mode of climate variability, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) was in the cool phase (Fig. 3). Fig. 2: Analog years comparing cool Nino12 SSTA and warm Nino34 characteristic of El Nino Modoki and the last 3 months of 2018. Fig. 3: Analog years are chosen from the past 20 years when the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation has been in the warm phase. Outlooks: A simple El Nino Modoki analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies is indicated for JUL/AUG, SEP/OCT/NOV and DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19. The outlooks are a confident first estimate of what to expect in each sector of the globe as to general climate conditions inspired by this unique El Nino scenario. Regional influences such as soil moisture during the warm season and snow cover during the cold season plus regional SSTA regimes outside of the tropics can modify the El Nino Modoki climate. July/August 2018: A warmer-than-normal pattern is forecast across central, east and northern Europe. High pressure is in control across this region. Cooler weather due to persistence of an upper trough can affect southwestern Europe at times. The upper trough is also responsible for periodic rains affecting U.K., France/Germany to Spain and Southeast Europe while to the east a dry climate dominates Ukraine. Drought concerns for Eastern Europe as west/south zones observe beneficial rainfall. Fig. 4-5: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Europe for JUL/AUG 2018. SEP/OCT/NOV 2018: The meteorological autumn forecast is made with below average forecast confidence. Indicated is a persistent cool trough across northern Europe with a showery pattern along the southern periphery of the trough affecting central and southeast portions of Europe. Anomalous warmth is dominant across the southern half of Europe eastward into Southwest Russia. Fig. 6-7: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Europe for SEP/OCT/NOV 2018. DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19: Winter continues to look cold. Negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) coupled with an arctic air source region across Russia invites the cold westward likely with above normal snowfall. Southern Europe is stormy with above normal rain and snow. A cold winter ahead! Fig. 8-9: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Europe for DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19.