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06/24/2019, 7:56 pm EDT

Europe Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: Upper ridge sets up over East/North Europe for mid-to-late summer. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Europe is valid for the months of July and August plus SEP/OCT/NOV 2019 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20. The forecast is generated by a SSTA-based analog. The selected SSTA forecast is the NCEP CFS V2. Of interest is projecting the persistent location of an upper ridge that could spawn drought during summer and autumn. The outlook indicates that an upper ridge pattern will persist in the vicinity of the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border and cause anomalous warmth and dryness in this zone. Climate discussion: The outlook is based on global SSTA forecasts for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 through NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 by the NCEP CFS V2 model chosen due to best initialization compared to the NMME and GFDL model. The JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 outlook indicates positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) and El Nino Modoki (Fig. 1). The +IOD pattern generates anomalous convection in the west and central tropical Indian ocean. The anomalous warm ocean causes persistent widespread convection which releases heat northeastward into the middle latitudes in this case causing an amplified upper ridge across Eastern Asia. Upstream from the ridge is a Central Russia cool and wet upper trough and farther upstream a persistent upper ridge over Eastern Europe for summertime. Fig. 1: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 and regional regimes affecting the European climate are indicated. Fig. 2: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 and regional regimes affecting the European climate are indicated. Outlooks: The outlooks are generated based on analogs which consider the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) regimes. The analog years extend to the beginning of the current climate cycle (initiated in the mid-to-late 1990’s). Forecasts for July and August are provided plus seasonal forecasts for meteorological autumn and winter ahead. July 2019: An upper ridge pattern is forecast persistent on the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border. The result is anomalous warmth across Northern Europe to the Black Sea region and risk of excessive heat is likely centered on Ukraine. There is susceptibility for an upper trough to form southwest of the ridge position over the Italy (and vicinity). The upper trough will spawn anomalous wet weather for South-central Europe during mid-summer. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for July 2019. August 2019: The upper ridge pattern may amplify over Northern Europe during late summer. The upper trough located near Italy during July could expand its attendant showery weather across much of Southern Europe during August. The expansive Southern Europe wet pattern is attributed (in-part) to El Nino. The northern shift of the upper ridge forces anomalous warmth and dryness farther north. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for August 2019. SEP/OCT/NOV 2019: A pattern change is forecast during autumn as the amplified ridge over East/North Europe is replaced by a semi-permanent upper trough. The warm climate shifts west and south to France/U.K. and much of Southern Europe. The Northern Baltic Nations to Northwest Russia are cool. Lingering wet weather is forecast in parts of Southern Europe. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for SEP/OCT/NOV 2019. DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20: The Norwegian Sea is forecast to stay warmer than normal after an autumn warm-up which promises mild temperatures for Northern Europe while temperate to chilly weather and rainy conditions are confined to Southeast Europe. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20.