09/21/2023, 12:33 pm EDT

Europe/Western Russia Month 1-3 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: Warmer than normal autumn across Europe remains in the forecast. Western Russia is cool and wet. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead climate forecast for Europe and Western Russia valid for Q4/2023 is updated. Forecast highlights include a warmer than normal mid-autumn to early winter pattern across Europe while Western Russia is frequently cooler (and wetter) than normal. Climate discussion: El Nino coupled with a record warm North Atlantic clearly has a warm influence on the Q4/2023 climate outlook across Europe and just-the-opposite on Western Russia where a cool/wet upper trough drops anchor. There is limited to no cold weather risk to Europe during Q4/2023 while Western Russia has a chance to build an early season snow cover. Methodology: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast is based on current upper air correlation with regional SSTA closely matched with past patterns having similarity and then projected forward to produce the most likely sensible climate forecast. The SSTA-based methodology has equal weighting to tropical SSTA patterns such as ENSO and mid-latitude regimes including marine heat waves (MHW) and semi-permanent warm holes (in the prevailing warmer than normal ocean surface) caused by polar ice melt.   October 2023: Mid-autumn features an intense upper trough north of Caspian Sea in West-central Russia. The upper trough inspires a wet and cool climate in this region. In response to the upper trough, an amplified upper ridge is forecast for Western Europe and centered on U.K. Western Europe is warmer and drier than normal for mid-autumn. Another upper trough is projected for the eastern Mediterranean Sea causing wet weather in that vicinity. Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for October 2023 across Europe/Western Russia.  November 2023: The upper air pattern does not change during late autumn. The upper trough shifts to northeast of Caspian Sea and could create some unusually cold air for early winter. Widespread above normal precipitation stretches from Ukraine eastward across Kazakhstan which will include some snowfall. The upstream upper ridge pattern remains in-place and keeps West and Central Europe somewhat warmer than normal. Dryness dominates South-central Europe during late autumn. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for November 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. December 2023: Early meteorological winter features more of the same. The upper ridge over Europe is broader and extends attendant mild climate across Europe and into Western Russia. The ridge also causes dry weather for most of Southern Europe which is unusual for an El Nino winter. An upper trough persists northeast of Caspian Sea and maintains a rain and snow pattern there. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for December 2023 across Europe/Western Russia.