03/21/2023, 4:06 pm EDT

Europe Month 1-3 Ahead Outlook: More (drought) trouble brewing for summer 2023

Executive Summary: The Europe/Western Russia month 1-3 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast is based primarily on the correlation between a warming eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and El Nino with cooling of the North Atlantic to the south of Greenland where the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is located. The corresponding upper air pattern favors a choppy path toward an upper ridge over Europe leading to another hot and dry summer season. Drought is most likely to develop in France (and vicinity) and parts of the Black Sea region.     Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies for Europe/Western Russia for APR/MAY/JUN 2023. Climate: During quarter 2 of 2023, El Nino develops in the tropical East Pacific. Recent evolving (or established) weak-to-moderate El Nino during APR/MAY/JUN are well-correlated to the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland (Fig. 3-4). The NAWH has become the lead mode of SSTA climate variability across Europe during the past decade based on Climate Impact Company observation. Aloft, the presence of an upper trough across the cooling waters of the NAWH is generated sometimes pushing east during the volatile character of spring climate (Fig. 5). However, once warm ENSO and the NAWH are established during mid-to-late summer, the tendency for an upper ridge causal of dry and hot climate is likely to develop over Europe (Fig. 6). Fig. 3-4: Moderate El Nino is present by May. Recent moderate El Nino during May are well-correlated to an enhanced North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH).. Fig. 5-6: A simple analog using the East Pacific moderate El Nino and enhanced NAWH south of Greenland reveals the likelihood of a Europe/Western Russia ridge pattern during Q2 of 2023 amplifying by August. April 2023: Upper level trough stretched across Northwest Europe during March splits with one center shifting into Northwest Russia and the other well offshore south of Greenland. In-between, an upper level ridge forms over Northwest Europe and yields a warmer and drier climate for mid-spring across most of Europe. The wet zone is in the Black Sea/Caspian Sea regions. A big change from the current pattern is expected in April. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for April 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. May 2023: In May, the upper ridge pattern from April splits with one center over Southwest Europe and another in North-central Russia as a semi-permanent upper trough returns to Northwest Europe. The sensible weather is a cooldown for Europe while Portugal/Spain is warmer than normal and all of West/Central Russia to the Black Sea region is warmer than normal. The upper trough inspires wet weather in Southeast and North Europe and adds parts of Western Russia. In France, dryness persists as drought strengthens. Dry soils are developing in Spain and Portugal. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for May 2023 across Europe/Western Russia. June 2023: As meteorological summer 2023 arrives, an upper ridge pattern emerges over Eastern Europe while the Northern Europe trough lingers. Beneath the ridge pattern widespread anomalous warmth and dryness develops. Drought risk is highest over Western Europe centered on France for early summertime. The dryness and anomalous warmth also dominates areas east of the Black Sea where drought is likely to emerge. Fig. 11-12: The Climate Impact Company temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for June 2023 across Europe/Western Russia.