News
09/08/2022, 4:22 pm EDT

South/East Asia Month 1-3 Outlook: Unusually wet India/Southeast Asia into mid-autumn. Cold risk for China in December.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead climate forecasts for East and South Asia are updated. The forecast is based on a regional SSTA constructed analog chiefly including influence of La Nina and -IOD for Q4 of 2022. Departing the warm season, China is engaged in a major drought while much of India has wet soil conditions due to a wet monsoon pattern. Climate forecast highlights for Q4/2022 include generally a lack of important precipitation for China and therefore drought continues. The tropics are very wet due to La Nina/-IOD influence leaving parts of India and Southeast Asia wetter than normal. There is cool (October) to cold (December) risk for China. Fig. 1-2: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across East/South Asia for OCT/NOV/DEC 2022. October 2022: Mid-autumn features an early season chill for China. There appears to be a cold air source region aligning over Central Asia which provides the occasional burst of cool air into China. China is mostly normally dry while East India is wet. Fig. 3-4: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across East/South Asia for October 2022. November 2022: As the cold season begins, a cold air source region has developed over Central Asia. At times, some of that chill is emitted into China while other times are mild. Consequently, China is temperate for November and seasonably dry. There is above normal precipitation forecast for Northeast China. India is unusually wet across southern sections in November. Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across East/South Asia for November 2022. December 2022: The cold air source region in Central Asia is very difficult to dislodge once intact. As early winter arrives, risk of important cold outbreaks into China increase. Arctic air is a minimal concern. However, sufficiently cold for some snow is certainly possible. The wet pattern in India finally shuts off. Southeast Asia turns drier. Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across East/South Asia for December 2022.