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06/24/2019, 8:05 pm EDT

Australia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: +IOD and El Nino (Modoki) Support More Dryness for Australia Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Australia is valid for the months of July and August plus SEP/OCT/NOV 2019 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20. The forecast is generated by a SSTA-based analog. The selected SSTA forecast is the NCEP CFS V2. The primary concern is widespread drought previously established due to a long-lasting weak El Nino. El Nino Modoki is forecast by NCEP CFS V2 and coupled with positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole a general drought scenario across Australia should worsen through winter and into spring. Climate discussion: The outlook is based on global SSTA forecasts for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 through NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 by the NCEP CFS V2 model chosen due to best initialization compared to the NMME and GFDL model. The JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 outlook indicates positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) and El Nino Modoki (Fig. 1). Each of these SSTA regimes supports dryness across Australia. The +IOD regime slowly fades late in the year while the El Nino remains and may become a bit more conventional looking (Fig. 2). The general El Nino/+IOD regime strongly supports dryness across much of Australia. Fig. 1: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 and regional regimes affecting the Australian climate are indicated. Fig. 2: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 and regional regimes affecting the Australian climate are indicated. Outlooks: The outlooks are generated based on analogs which consider the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) regimes. The analog years extend to the beginning of the current climate cycle (initiated in the mid-to-late 1990’s). Forecasts for July and August are provided plus seasonal forecasts for meteorological spring and summer ahead. July 2019: The mid-winter outlook is milder-than-normal across the southern tier of the nation while cool SSTA northwest of Australia (characteristic of +IOD) favors a cooler climate across northern Australia. Excessive temperature is not expected. The precipitation outlook is near normal or drier than normal eastern sections. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for July 2019. August 2019: Late winter is similar with +IOD driven cool anomalies across northern Australia while the Southwest and Central East Coast are the warm zones. The precipitation outlook reverses wetter than normal (after a dry July) on the central coast of East Australia, Meanwhile Southwest and Southeast portions of the continent are dry, Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for August 2019. SEP/OCT/NOV 2019: The drying effect of +IOD combined with El Nino is fully evident during autumn as the eastern half of the continent is forecast drier than normal. During springtime most of the continent is warmer than normal. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for SEP/OCT/NOV 2019. DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20: Next summer season features anomalous heat across the northwestern continent and Interior East. The focus of dry climate is across the northwestern continent. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20.