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06/29/2018, 10:46 am EDT

Asia Season 1-3 Climate Outlook

An El Nino Modoki-based Climate Outlook through winter 2018-19 Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Asia features a dry reversal in the Indian Monsoon and strengthening dry climate across most of Indonesia. A dry climate emerges during autumn across Southeast Asia. Winter looks very cold across Russia with some of the big chill moving into China at times. Climate discussion:  A somewhat recent discovery of an infrequent version of an El Nino episode known as El Nino Modoki is becoming a more likely scenario for the next 1-3 to as many as 9 months ahead according to the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Fig. 1) and various global SSTA forecast models governing the most likely climate patterns around the globe. Fig. 1: El Nino-Modoki Index forecast by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology indicates a weak Modoki ahead for 2018-19. To estimate a historical precedent of El Nino Modoki regimes on global climate analog years are chosen. El Nino Modoki occurred in 2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-10 (Fig. 2). There are other El Nino Modoki episodes prior to the 3 listed however they occurred when another important mode of climate variability, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) was in the cool phase (Fig. 3). Fig. 2: Analog years comparing cool Nino12 SSTA and warm Nino34 characteristic of El Nino Modoki and the last 3 months of 2018. Fig. 3: Analog years are chosen from the past 20 years when the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation has been in the warm phase. Outlooks: A simple El Nino Modoki analog forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies is indicated for JUL/AUG, SEP/OCT/NOV and DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19. The outlooks are a confident first estimate of what to expect in each sector of the globe as to general climate conditions inspired by this unique El Nino scenario. Regional influences such as soil moisture during the warm season and snow cover during the cold season plus regional SSTA regimes outside of the tropics can modify the El Nino Modoki climate. July/August 2018: The most dramatic aspect of the mid-to-late summer forecast is the dry Indian Monsoon. An early wet monsoon developed earlier this summer season but cooling of the tropical Indian Ocean foreshadows a dry and likely hotter than normal pattern ahead in India. Dryness will become dominant across most of Indonesia. Typhoon activity is near to above normal but staying mostly east of Asia. Wet weather is forecast into the central China coast likely related to a tropical event. Dryness in the China wheat zones is marginal. Fig. 4-5: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Asia for JUL/AUG 2018. SEP/OCT/NOV 2018: Dryness persists across India and spreads throughout Southeast Asia to central and eastern Indonesia. Eastern China is also drier than normal. The climate outlook does not indicate any significant thermal anomalies except cool in far northern China. Fig. 6-7: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Asia for SEP/OCT/NOV 2018. DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19: Arctic air is abundant and arrives early in Russia for the winter season and at times shifts east/southeast across northeastern China. India and Southeast Asia are warmer than normal for the winter season. Fig. 8-9: An El Nino Modoki climate pattern featuring temperature and precipitation anomalies for Asia for DEC/JAN/FEB 2018-19.