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06/24/2019, 8:17 pm EDT

Asia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook

Highlight: China Wheat Drought Risk. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Asia is valid for the months of July and August plus SEP/OCT/NOV 2019 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20. The forecast is generated by a SSTA-based analog. The selected SSTA forecast is the NCEP CFS V2. The primary concern is drought generating in the China Wheat zone of East-central to Northeast China. The outlooks generally support more dryness and attendant heat for the northern 2/3 of the wheat crop for mid-to-late summer. Climate discussion: The outlook is based on global SSTA forecasts for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 through NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 by the NCEP CFS V2 model chosen due to best initialization compared to the NMME and GFDL model. The JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 outlook indicates positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) and El Nino Modoki (Fig. 1). Each of these SSTA regimes will affect the Asian climate. Warm SSTA in the central and western Indian Ocean vaults heat northeastward across India and much of East/Northeast Asia during summer. El Nino Modoki will keep much of Indonesia in a dry subsidence zone. In-between the two regimes Southeast Asia is wetter than normal for summertime. The +IOD regime weakens later this year while El Nino is more conventional by late year (Fig. 2). Fig. 1: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 and regional regimes affecting the Asian climate are indicated.   Fig. 2: The NCEP CFS V2 global SSTA forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN 2019-20 and regional regimes affecting the Asian climate are indicated. Outlooks: The outlooks are generated based on analogs which consider the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) regimes. The analog years extend to the beginning of the current climate cycle (initiated in the mid-to-late 1990’s). Forecasts for July and August are provided plus seasonal forecasts for meteorological autumn and winter ahead. July 2019: Leading the influence on July climate across Asia is the very warm waters of the central and western Indian Ocean. Characteristic of a +IOD pattern the convection produced over the anomalous warm water will release latent heat northeastward causing a high pressure area over east/northeast Asia to cause warmer and drier than normal climate. There remains concern that the wheat crop of East-central to Northeast China could encounter a drought. Anomalous heat is impressive in India although the dry forecast for Western India is in question. Indonesia will turn drier. Expect a showery/thundery Monsoon to affect Southeast Asia. Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for July 2019. August 2019: The warm SSTA in the Central Indian Ocean should eventually lead to significant rains in parts of India wiping out any dry/drought concerns of early summer. The wheat areas in China are mostly hot and dry. Dryness across Indonesia intensifies although the wet pattern over Southeast Asia continues. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for August 2019. SEP/OCT/NOV 2019: The +IOD pattern is expected to hang on into meteorological autumn causing heavy rains south and southwest of India. The El Nino Modoki keeps Indonesia dry and Southeast Asia also trends drier. Fig. 7-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for SEP/OCT/NOV 2019. DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20: The outlook for next winter is driven mostly by ENSO. Indicated is a temperate winter season across China with wetter than normal conditions across Eastern China. A large mass of cold weather gathers in Central Asia. Indonesia begins to lose the dry character to their climate experienced during the summer 2019 season. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20.