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WEEK 2-4 AHEAD OUTLOOK
MONTH 1-3 AHEAD
SEASON 1-3 AHEAD
ENSO OUTLOOK
Week 2-4 Ahead
U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook: Cooler East/Warm West Canada next week. ECM rewarms East week 3-4 (maybe too warm). Midwest mostly dry.
Europe/Western Russia Week 2-4 Outlook: Europe Northern Corn/Russia Central/East Spring Wheat Drought Watch.
South America Week 2-4 Outlook: Expect a sharp pattern change in Argentina through mid-June.
Australia Week 2-4 Outlook: Freeze Interior East Australia late week.
Month 1-3 Ahead
U.S. Month 1-3 Outlook: Northwest heat and dryness continues, Northeast Corridor heat appears in JUL/AUG, and Great Plains drought easing late summer.
Australia Month 1-3 Ahead Outlook: Winter has a mild start with cold risk greatest mid-to-late winter. Generally, a drier than normal climate. El Nino onset likely.
Europe Month 1-4 Ahead/Summer 2023 Outlook: Regenerating important heat/dryness is likely (again) during summer of 2023.
South America Month 1-3 Outlook: Argentina drought roars on; Northeast Brazil is mostly wet.
Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlooks (2100 GMT Third WED of each month)
North America Season 1-4 Ahead Outlook: Outlook is biased dry North-central/Midwest U.S. through next spring, another hot summer ahead, and winter 2023-24 is mild East.
Australia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook: +IOD/El Nino ahead promise an evolving dry bias to Australia climate for the second half of 2023.
Europe/Western Russia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook: Summer looks hot, turns dry. Autumn and next winter are also warmer than normal.
U.S. Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlook: Risk of a central North America high-pressure ridge for summer 2023, autumn is wet, next winter is potentially (stormy/cold) interesting.
South America Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Forecast
ENSO Outlook
Transient Madden Julian Oscillation Supports Cool-down in East U.S. Next Week
Weekly ENSO Diagnostics Report: El Nino trying but failing to reach onset conditions.
May 2023 ENSO Outlook: ENSO forecast trend is stronger with 2023 El Nino followed by a flip back to La Nina later next year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Outlook: PDO stays cool, resists El Nino forecasts (for now)
February 2023 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Outlook for 2023
GLOBAL AGRICULTURE ALERT
SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK
RESEARCH
TROPICS
Global Agricultural Alert
AG Hot Spot: Chilly regimes increasing a freeze risk to the Brazil coffee-growing areas during mid-winter are not tied to ENSO since 1995.
Daily Feature: U.S. May 2023 Wind Speeds Below Normal Due to -SOI
U.S. Medium-range Forecast: Cooler East/South U.S. while Canadian warmth rages on in the medium-range forecast.
AG Daily Round-up: The U.S. Sunday report.
AG Market Global Weather/Climate Holiday Report
AG Market Early Weather/Climate Alert: Is The U.S. Corn Belt in Drought Trouble?
AG Market Global Alert PPTX Presentation
Soil Moisture Outlook
U.S. Soil Moisture Outlook
Research
Climate/Agriculture Research: Status of Global Marine Heat Waves (and Warm Holes)
Warm and Cool Regional SSTA and Their Correlation to “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (and Trough)” Locations
Tropics
2023 North Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook
North Atlantic 2023 TC Outlook: El Nino holds down seasonal activity below amount observed during the 2016-22 active period.
