A super heat wave evolves across Argentina with 95-110 likely central/north-central ARG the next 2-3 days with peak heat shifting into east/northeast ARG TUE/WED when 100+ is likely (Fig. 1). By late week a cold front spawns rain showers/thunderstorms dousing the northeast ARG heat while the heat core shifts to southeast Brazil (Fig. 2-3). Prior to the hot weather core shifting into Brazil a stalled frontal system brings wet weather.
In the 6-10 day period an upper trough, quite strong for this time of year sweeps across South America likely lingering in the 11-15 day period just east of South America. In the 6-10 day period the upper trough brings 150-200% of normal rainfall to the short-term heat wave zone of north/northeast Argentina (Fig. 4).
Fig. 1-2: Temperature anomaly forecast by ICON Global (model) indicates core of Argentina heat wave shifts to southern wheat/soybean areas Tuesday followed by a shift (of that heat) to southeast Brazil (Friday).
Fig. 3-4: Rainfall forecast for Friday by the ECMWF indicates 1+ in. ending the east/northeast Argentina heat wave. The 6-10 day forecast is wetter than normal across northern Argentina according to the ECM ENS.