AG Hot Spot: Ukraine Dryness Persists

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An eastward extension of a persistent European high pressure ridge continues to produce lack of rain across the Ukraine and Black Sea region. The outlook is for more dry weather across this region into July.

This week: Last week was the tale of 2 temperature regimes (Fig. 1) while dryness was dominant (Fig. 2). The same pattern this week: Dry and warm-to-borderline hot in Ukraine/Black Sea region while not far to the east-northeast a showery/cool regime persists.

Days 6-10 (June 23-June 27): Still looks anomalous warm and dry in the Black Sea/Southwest Russia region. West/northwest Russia turn wet. Far to the east a less wet and more temperate pattern evolves.

Days 11-15 (June 28-July 2): Borderline wet weather is possible into Ukraine but not enough to ease drought. Models vary from very dry to possible marginal rainfall. Wet weather is likely well to the north over Northwest Russia.

Early July mega-cluster: Favoring a ridge over Europe and not Western Russia.

New long-range climate forecasts through winter 2018-19 are issued this week.

Fig. 1-2: Very warm in Southwest Russia while West-Central Russia was quite cool last week. Dryness dominated the Black Sea region.