MJO-Induced Wet Weather Event in Brazil

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Moderate intensity east-shifting MJO inspires wet WX in Brazil

Fig. 1-2: The GFS ENS 14-day MJO forecast indicates eastward progression with moderate intensity across the equatorial Pacific heading toward tropical Africa. The east-shifting MJO invites the convection phase (of the MJO) across South America increasing heavy rain risk.

Discussion: The latest 14-day Madden Julian oscillation forecast is interesting identifying a progressive moderately intense character (Fig. 1) likely to inspire a widespread wetter pattern change in Brazil (Fig. 2). The GFS ENS indicates ABOVE too MUCH ABOVE normal rainfall in the 8-14 and especially 11-15 day period (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: The GFS ENS indicates ABOVE too MUCH ABOVE normal rainfall in Brazil during the 11-15 day period inspired by the MJO pattern.