Europe Drought To Return & Re-Intensify

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Discussion: A just-ended storm brought heavy rain and high wind across much of Europe enabling the Rhine River at Kaub, Germany to recover from October 22 low level. HOWEVER, the persistent upper ridge pattern causing the Europe drought is about to redevelop and last through all of November. The Rhine River at Kaub, Germany will return to Oct. 22 levels during late autumn.

Fig. 1: Heavy rain (and south-central Europe mountain snow) enabled the Rhine River levels at Kaub, Germany to recover the past few days. But! Descent back to Oct. 22 levels is expected in November as dry weather returns.

Fig. 2-4: The GFS OP percent of normal rainfall forecast for days 1-5, days 6-10 and days 11-15 indicate returning intense dryness for Europe/Western Russia.

Fig. 5-6: The NCEP CFS V2 (model) week 3/week 4 ahead percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates dryness persists across Europe through November.

Fig. 7-8: A strong polar vortex across or nearby Greenland in 2018 has caused the upstream dry/warm ridge to form over Europe leading to drought (left). The 15-day forecast indicates the upper ridge returns (right).

Fig. 9: The polar vortex has persisted across a rare cooler-than-normal ocean south and southeast of Greenland for most of 2018.