ALERT: Stratospheric Warming Triggers Russia/Europe Arctic Outbreak late NOV/early DEC
Discussion: ALL models indicate the core of a stratospheric warming event across Northeast Asia mostly late in November (Fig. 1). The stratospheric warming forces cooling and contraction of the troposphere. The troposphere is colder, dense and heavier causing surface pressure to build and arctic air to form over north-central Russia in about 8 days backing into Europe by late November (Fig. 2). Temperatures drop to single numbers/teens at night with this outbreak into Southeast Europe.
An already active storm track across southern Europe entrains the cold air causing widespread snows to develop (Fig. 3). As snow cover forms, expands and deepens a carpet to maintain the incoming chill.
Fig. 1: The GFS OP indicates a stratospheric warming event across central/northeast Russia later this month.
Fig. 2: The stratospheric warming event causes arctic air to generate over Central Russia and back quickly into Europe in late November.
Fig. 3: An already active storm track across Southern Europe turns snowy as ECMWF indicates 6-12 in. of snow for the last few days of November South-central to Southeast Europe.