Australia is Recently Drier but Wetter Regime May Return

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The recently drier national climate in Australia may turn wet again

Fig. 1: The Australian precipitation amounts from the past 7 days.

Discussion: After a wet national climate during late summer/early autumn causing soil moisture to reverse from drought to wetter than normal a drier climate is emerging. During the past 7 days the national regime has been drier with wet weather confined to coastal Southern Australia and the far northeast coast of Queensland (Fig. 1).

Previously, dry forecasts maintained the recently developed pattern. However, the outlooks have reversed drier especially in the 8-14 day period. During the next week dryness dominates central and northwest continent while wetter than normal conditions develop across New South Wales (Fig. 2). The CMC ENS indicates much of Australia is wetter than normal in the 8-14 day period (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2-3: The Australian precipitation anomaly forecast by the CMC ENS model for days 1-7 and 8-14 ahead.