News
08/26/2025, 1:30 pm EDT
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Strong Tradewinds Prevent Deep Tropics to Gulf Significant Storms So Far

Tropical cyclone activity during 2025 so far has featured tropical cyclone tracks mostly near and off the U.S. East Coast. One possible explanation for lack of activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and deep tropics is the persistent (much) stronger than normal trade winds preventing systems from developing.
08/25/2025, 10:22 am EDT
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North Atlantic Basin Regions of SSTA Analysis

The lack of tropical cyclone activity across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea is allowing each basin to shift warmer. The Gulf of Mexico is nearly 1C warmer than normal and warmer by 1/3C during the past 30 days. The Caribbean Sea has warmed by 2/10C during the past 30 days to 0.65C. However, the North Atlantic basin is marginally warm at +0.34C and much cooler than 1 year ago by 0.52C.
08/24/2025, 11:45 am EDT
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Europe Drought to Receive Beneficial Rainfall

Europe continues to encounter widespread harsh drought. The drought is related to the NAWH-trough and downstream ridge pattern, common during the past decade especially during the warm season. However, pattern change is on the way.
08/24/2025, 9:16 am EDT
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North Atlantic Tropics: SEP/OCT/NOV Should Become Active!

Other than Erin, the 2025 season has been quiet so far. However, during the 2016-24 active period, after September 1 is typically quite active featuring 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. As September 2025 approaches, the North Atlantic basin is warmer than normal but arguably the least warm since 2015. Previously, 2018 produced least warm North Atlantic basin SSTA during September when peak tropical cyclone activity occurs. However, in 2018 a weak La Nina was forming and in 2025, signs of a weak La Nina are ahead. Therefore, despite the less warm North Atlantic, the La Nina tendency should produce a favorable atmospheric environment for tropical cyclone development during SEP/OCT/NOV 2025.