Fig. 1: Morning North Atlantic basin weather satellite view.
Discussion: Tropical Disturbance 92L remains disorganized in the west-central North Atlantic tropics. However, the attendant convection is impressive! Once a circulation develops this system should gain intensity quickly. A tropical storm (“Isaias”) is expected on approach to the Windward Islands tomorrow. The preliminary CIC forecast track follows ECMWF guidance which takes this system into Hispaniola in 4 days. Hispaniola is known as the graveyard of tropical cyclones due to the high terrain. So…weakening of Isaias is very likely. ECMWF indicates potential for some regaining strength once the system moves northwest of Cuba turning north as a tropical storm along the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Other forecast models are farther north and implicate the east coast of Florida for a possible landfall this weekend. Forecast confidence is low but will increase sharply once a tropical system organizes tomorrow.
Fig. 2: Tropical cyclone models are farther north compared to the CIC preliminary track.