Sahara Dust Cloud to Texas/Mid-South U.S. Weekend

Watching (Closely) Drying Soil Moisture Conditions
06/23/2020, 8:28 am EDT
A Comparison Between GFS and ECM in 6-10 Day U.S. Rainfall Forecasts
06/29/2020, 8:18 am EDT
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Highlight: Sahara Dust Cloud to Texas/Mid-South U.S. Weekend

Fig. 1: The Sahara dust cloud from yesterday afternoon moving into the Gulf of Mexico and heading for Texas/Mid-South U.S. this weekend.

Fig. 2: North Atlantic basin satellite view.

Discussion: Combining the stabilizing influence of Saharan dust clouds across the southern North Atlantic basin and the axis of upper shear in the same location is suppressing topical wave risk. Meanwhile the intra-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is stronger than normal for this time of year. The GFS continues to indicate a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico July 4-5 likely targeting LA/MS coastal areas as mainly a heavy rain event. The ECM model does not indicate this risk.