Hurricane Season is DEFINITELY Not Over!

Updated U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD Outlooks
10/11/2020, 2:00 pm EDT
Season’s First Cold Air Mass Organizing In West/Southwest Canada.
10/15/2020, 7:45 am EDT
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Highlight: Hurricane season is DEFINTELY not over!

Fig. 1: Morning weather satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.

Discussion: During October the warm west/southwest Caribbean Sea remains a fertile breeding ground for tropical cyclones. The GFS model steadily generates a tropical cyclone in the southwest Caribbean Sea in 9-10 days, develops this system into a hurricane which moves north and strikes Florida and continues north-northeastward along the U.S. East Coast. For now upper shear is sufficient to prevent development.

Fig. 2: The GFS steadily indicates another significant hurricane later this month.