Hurricane Florence Moves Inland Today SLOWLY as Hurricane Conditions in North Carolina Continue

Florence Caveat Forecast
09/11/2018, 10:35 pm EDT
Unusually Warm Ocean Propelled Florence Intensity
09/16/2018, 5:08 pm EDT
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Category 1 Hurricane Florence is 25 miles east of Wilmington

Inland in the Wilmington area mid-morning

Passing north of Myrtle Beach tonight

Weakens to a tropical storm in South Carolina tomorrow

Extreme rainfall Texas Coast past 24 hours associated with 95L

Flooding south/east Texas as 95L moves inland, possibly as depression

Fig. 1: North Atlantic satellite view with tropical systems identified.

Discussion: Category 1 Hurricane Florence remains just offshore to the east of Wilmington, NC this morning. USAF RECON found steady intensity the last few hours. Florence will ease toward the coast this morning but for most of daylight the circulation stays offshore and Florence maintains hurricane intensity. Once the system is farther inland tonight and early Saturday weakening to a strong tropical storm will occur. Florence is expected to ride the southeast periphery of a Midwest U.S. upper ridge pattern this weekend therefore track west-southwest then west across South Carolina weakening to a tropical depression Sunday night in the southern Appalachians. An upper trough will pull the remains of Florence northward into the eastern Ohio Valley Monday night and as a squall through the Northeast Corridor Tuesday.

Numerous reports of sustained wind near hurricane force and hurricane force wind gusts have been observed on the lower to central North Carolina Coast and will be maintained for the daylight hours today. Storm surge near 10 feet has been observed. Maximum storm surge of 10-13 feet remains in-place until the storm is well inland tomorrow. Rainfall estimates so far based on radar observations are in the 3-6 in. range from Wilmington to the Outer Cape of North Carolina. A tornado watch is in place for eastern North Carolina.

The forecast indicates tropical storm force wind will extend from the central Georgia coast to southern Virginia and west to the southern Appalachians. Hurricane force wind will continue to affect southeast North Carolina today and expand to northeast South Carolina tonight. The rainfall forecast for southeast North Carolina into northeast South Carolina remains 20-30 in.

Tropical Disturbance 95L has produced rain bands that radar estimates dropped over 10 in. of rain the past 24 hours just east of Houston. The disturbance will continue to produce extreme rainfall moving ashore the Texas coast today. Flash flood watch is posted and several southern Texas rivers are already flooding. NOAA/NHC seems to be underestimating this small but potent tropical system. An upgrade to a depression should occur today before this system moves inland this evening.

Isaac has weakened to a depression and is forecast to cross the Caribbean Sea the next 5 days. There is a slight chance this system could turn into the Gulf of Mexico and regain strength in the 6-10 day period.

Location reports

At 5 AM EDT Category 1 Hurricane Florence is located at 34.2N/77.4W or 25 miles east of Wilmington, NC. Sustained wind is 90 mph. Movement is west-northwest at 6 mph. Pressure is 958 MB.

At 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Helene is located at 30.6N/36.0W or 760 miles southwest of the Azores. Sustained wind is 65 mph. Movement is north at 23 mph. Pressure is 992 MB.

At 5 AM EDT Tropical Depression Isaac is located at 15.0N/65.5W or 190 miles south-southwest of St. Croix. Sustained wind is 35 mph. Movement is west at 15 mph. Pressure is 1006 MB.

At 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Joyce is located at 32.1N/44.9W or 1090 miles west-southwest of the Azores moving south-southwest at 8 mph with top wind 40 mph and pressure 1003 MB.

Tropical Disturbance 95L is off the south Texas coast as goes inland late today possibly as a tropical depression.

Climate Impact Company Tropical Cyclone Risk Table

EventProbability

Tropical

Storm (previous)

Probability Hurricane (previous)Probability Intense Hurricane (previous)U.S. East Coast Strike (previous)Gulf of Mexico Strike (previous)
Hurricane

Florence

100% (100%)100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

0%

(0%)

T.S.

Isaac

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

5%

(1%)

T.S.

Helene

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

Tropical Dist 95L25%

(45%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

100%

(100%)

T.S.

Joyce

(100%)

(100%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

 Table 1: Climate Impact tropical cyclone risk forecast table.

Fig. 2: NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track of Florence.

Fig. 3: NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast associated with Florence.

Fig. 4: NOAA/NHC hurricane force wind speed probability forecast associated with Florence.

Fig. 5: NOAA/NHC tropical storm force wind speed probability forecast associated with Florence.

NOAA/NHC Storm Surge Forecast

  • Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC…7-11 feet, with locally higher
  • amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
  • Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 feet.
  • South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC…4-6 feet.
  • Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 feet.
  • Salvo NC to Duck NC…2-4 feet.
  • Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 feet.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20182570922128_e20182570924513_c20182570924546.nc

 

Fig. 6: Satellite view of heavy rain bands associated with Tropical Disturbance 95L.