Florence Inland Wilmington, NC Dawn Friday As Category 2 Hurricane

NOAA/NHC: Florence Makes Landfall Anywhere From Wilmington, NC To NC/SC State Line Late Friday
09/12/2018, 6:08 pm EST
Record River Crests Report for North Carolina
09/16/2018, 11:07 am EST
Show all

Category 2 Hurricane into Wilmington, NC Dawn Friday

9-13 foot storm surge, 20-30 in. of rain southern 1/2 NC Coast

95L: Looks weaker, 60% TS before striking Texas Coast tomorrow

Isaac is weak, heading into Caribbean

Helene weakens to a TS today, off to U.K. in 6 days

Fig. 1: The North Atlantic Basin satellite view with NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast tracks.

Discussion: Southerly shear has prevented Florence from maintaining major hurricane classification this morning. The upper shear may relax prior to landfall but not quickly enough for re-intensification therefore Florence is forecast to make landfall as a category 2 hurricane. Florence continues to ride the southwest periphery of the Bermuda High. Although forward speed should slow down later today any west or southwest turn is delayed until after Florence is inland. The landfall is adjusted north to the Wilmington, NC area near dawn tomorrow.

Tropical storm force wind extends to 130 miles northwest of Florence. Tropical storm force wind arrives on the North Carolina coast from near Cape Hatteras to the upper coast of South Carolina this morning. Hurricane force wind extend to 60 miles northwest of Florence.  Hurricane force wind arrives on the southeast North Carolina coast later this afternoon. The duration of hurricane force wind across southeast North Carolina is 24-30 hours.

The rainfall forecast is 20-30 in. across southeast North Carolina beginning in earnest later today and lasting well into Saturday. The storm surge forecast is unchanged peaking at 9-13 feet from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including inland water ways in that stretch. Several high tides occur during this storm surge.

Florence weakens to a tropical storm in northeast South Carolina Saturday shifting westward to the southern Appalachians as a depression early Monday. Heavy rains follow the Florence track and northward placing the northern half of South Carolina and much of south/west North Carolina (also) in a dangerous flooding zone. Florence turns north and northeast accelerating through New England Tuesday night.

Tropical Disturbance 95L is struggling to organize. This system is projected to become a tropical depression prior to going inland southern Texas late Friday. There is a 45% chance of a tropical storm. 2-4 in. of rain with tropical storm force gusts are likely for the central and southern Texas coast Friday/Friday night.

Helene weakens to a tropical storm in the outer tropical North Atlantic today heading north to U.K. in 5-6 days. Isaac moves into the Caribbean tonight as a weak tropical storm. Isaac will be a depression southwest of Jamaica in 4-5 days.

Location reports

At 5 AM EDT Category 2 Hurricane Florence is located at 32.8N/74.7W or 205 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, NC. Sustained wind is 110 mph. Movement is northwest at 15 mph. Pressure is 956 MB.

At 5 AM EDT Category 2 Hurricane Helene is located at 23.5N/37.3W or 1170 miles southwest of the Azores. Sustained wind is 75 mph. Movement is north at 14 mph. Pressure is 986 MB.

At 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Isaac is located at 15.4N/59.7W or 105 miles east of Dominica. Sustained wind is 45 mph. Movement is west at 17 mph. Pressure is 1006 MB.

At 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Joyce is located at 33.8N/43.1W or 945 miles west-southwest of the Azores moving southwest at 6 mph with top wind 45 mph and pressure 1006 MB.

Tropical Disturbance 95L is in the west-central Gulf of Mexico drifting west-northwest near 15 mph.

Climate Impact Company Tropical Cyclone Risk Table

EventProbability

Tropical

Storm (previous)

Probability Hurricane (previous)Probability Intense Hurricane (previous)U.S. East Coast Strike (previous)Gulf of Mexico Strike (previous)
Hurricane

Florence

100% (100%)100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

0%

(0%)

T.S.

Isaac

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

1%

(3%)

T.S.

Helene

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

100%

(100%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(0%)

Tropical Dist 95L45%

(70%)

0%

(20%)

0%

(2%)

0%

(0%)

100%

(80%)

T.S.

Joyce

100%0%0%0%0%

 

Table 1: Climate Impact tropical cyclone risk forecast table.

Fig. 2: NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track of Florence.

Fig. 3: NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast associated with Florence.

Fig. 4: NOAA/NHC hurricane force wind speed probability forecast associated with Florence.

Fig. 5: NOAA/NHC tropical storm force wind speed probability forecast associated with Florence.

NOAA/NHC Storm Surge Forecast

  • Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
  • Bay Rivers…9-13 feet.
  • North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear…6-9 feet
  • Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…6-9 feet
  • South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach…4-6 feet.
  • Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…4-6 feet.
  • Edisto Beach to South Santee River…2-4 feet.

Fig. 6: Tropical cyclone model forecast tracks for 95L indicate a southern Texas strike in 36-42 hours.

Fig. 7: Tropical cyclone model intensity forecast for 95L doubts a tropical storm.