Mississippi Flooding Ahead Due to Gordon

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08/30/2018, 8:04 am EDT
Excellent Environment to Support a Major Hurricane (Florence) off the U.S. East Coast Next Week
09/06/2018, 10:49 am EDT
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Gordon forecast to become minimal hurricane prior to landfall

Gordon makes landfall western Mississippi late evening

Hurricane warning from mouth of Pearl River to AL/FL state line

Florence well out-to-sea, becomes hurricane in 5 days

Florence likely to stay at sea days 6-10

92L emerges in eastern tropics, moves west/develops

Fig. 1: The morning North Atlantic basin satellite view.

Climate Impact Company Tropical Cyclone Risk Table

EventProbability

Tropical

Storm (previous)

Probability Hurricane (previous)Probability Intense Hurricane (previous)U.S. East Coast Strike (previous)Gulf of Mexico Strike (previous)
T.S. Florence100% (100%)60%

(50%)

3%

(5%)

10%

(20%)

0%

(0%)

T.S.

Gordon

100%

(10%)

75%

(10%)

0%

(0%)

0%

(60%)

100% (100%)
Disturbance 92L65%

(55%)

30%

(25%)

5%

(5%)

10%

(5%)

5%

(5%)

 Table 1: Climate Impact tropical cyclone risk forecast table.

Gordon discussion: At 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Gordon was located at 27.7 North/85.7 West or about 230 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Gordon has top wind of 65 mph and is moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Minimum pressure is 1004 MB. Gordon is a ragged disorganized somewhat small tropical cyclone. Upper shear axis west of the storm is inhibiting development. Nevertheless with a trek over open water which 85-86F NOAA/NHC forecasts strengthening to a minimal hurricane this afternoon and landfall as a category 1 hurricane along the western Mississippi coast late this evening. A hurricane warning is issued for the mouth of the Pearl River to the FL/AL state line.

Gordon will produce a lot of rain, 6-10 in. from the Mississippi coast into southwest and west portions of Mississippi. Flash flood risk in this heavy rain zone is high.

A life threatening storm surge warning is in effect for Shell Beach to Dauphin Island. Maximum storm surge is forecast 3-5 feet in this area. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is expected in Mobile and the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Hurricane force wind will occur offshore to the south of Alabama and Mississippi and along the western Mississippi Coast to LA/MS state line later this evening as Gordon makes landfall.

Heavy rain shifts toward northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma late week.

Fig. 2: NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track of T.S. Gordon.

Fig. 3-4: Tropical cyclone models forecast tracks/intensity of Gordon.

Fig. 5-6: NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast associated with Gordon and flood risk.

Fig. 7-8: NOAA/NHC projection of hurricane and tropical storm force wind profile.

Florence discussion: At 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Florence was located at 19.3 North/42.0 West or about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Florence has top wind of 70 mph and is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Minimum pressure is 995 MB. Florence continues to encounter partial inhibiting influence of upper shear preventing hurricane intensity. The upper shear influence increases the next 2-3 days and Florence should weaken slightly. However, lighter shear and warmer surface water enable re-intensification to a hurricane in 5 days. Medium-range forecast models indicate Florence is likely to stay at sea and turn northward later in the 6-10 day period.

Fig. 9: NOAA/NHC forecast 5-day forecast track of Tropical Storm Florence.

Fig. 10-11: Tropical cyclone models forecast tracks and intensity of Florence.

92L discussion: A new tropical disturbance has developed in the outer tropical North Atlantic. This system is likely to travel due west and slowly intensify this week. A tropical storm is expected in 2-3 days.

Fig. 12-13: Tropical cyclone models forecast tracks and intensity of 92L.